QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY IN AQUACULTURE : CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WHITELEG SHRIMP (Litopenaeus vannamei) FARMING IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE
Oleh : DWI PUSPA ARINI
Email : firstname.lastname@example.org
Fakultas / Jurusan : Pasca Sarjana / S2 Ilmu Lingkungan
Whiteleg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) commodities has a high economic value and a high market demand. Changes in temperature and precipitation seems to be the significant factors environmental/climatic that effect shrimp aquaculture production. The objective of this thesis is to understand the influence of climatic factors on the whiteleg shrimp aquaculture sector in Indonesia based on CMIP5 models (IPSL-CM5A-MR model selected) and to understand the adaptability of whiteleg shrimp to climate change on vulnerable area. The projection of IPSL-CM5A-MR model (2018 - 2042) includes four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) scenarios, encompassing RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. These vulnerable map were created by overlaying the exposure and sensitivity map in various time scales (2020, 2040 and average time 2018 – 2042), these exposure maps indicate precipitation and temperature (maximum temperature and minimum temperature). The sensitivity maps indicates production of shrimp. The results on various time scales showed that Banyuwangi District was the most vulnerable area in East Java Province. Furthermore, analysis supported by collected of information as adaptive capacity from farmers by using questionnaire (total 25 respondents were interviewed). The questionnaire has analyzed descriptively. 92% of the respondents were aware of climate change. The respondents revealed that increased on rainfall (34%) and decreased of temperature (29%) had negative impacts on shrimp production. While, threat in the future some respondents mentioned not much different with threat that exist today, which were related to climate and disease. More deeply the vulnerable for various time scales in coastal area of Banyuwangi also created and found that there were positively correlation between temperature and precipitation with production, but it was insignificant.
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